燃料电池船舶 2023-2033：PEMFC、SOFC、氢气、氨气、液化天然气

Most consumer goods are transported by sea, placing great pressure on the maritime sector to decarbonize to meet broader climate goals set out in recent years. While there is 'no silver bullet', multiple low carbon solutions are emerging. Pure battery-electric ships are the best solution where possible. They tend to result in the lowest carbon footprint and be economical, either by reducing or eliminating fuel consumption and engine use/maintenance. However, large vessel types, such as sea-going cargo vessels, are not practical to convert to pure battery electric due to range and weight requirements - the problem is they contribute the most to maritime emissions.

 

Indeed, the energy needs of large sea-going vessels span into the hundreds of mega-watt hours, beyond the capabilities of batteries for the foreseeable future. The result is that maritime battery markets are beginning to saturate in early adopter segments, such as ferries, and reach their limitations in others, such as the short and deep-sea vessels. To reduce carbon emissions in these hard-to-abate sectors, ultimately, the industry must turn to low carbon or green fuels. Some of the most promising fuels include e-methanol, e-methane, green hydrogen, and green ammonia.

 

There are multiple methods to convert the chemical energy held in green fuels into mechanical energy, including combustion, but fuel cells (FC) offer one of the most efficient solutions, and, most importantly, a true pathway to zero-emissions. The IDTechEx report 'Fuel Cell Boats & Ships 2023-2033: PEMFC, SOFC, Hydrogen, Ammonia, LNG' shows the current deployment and use of onboard fuel cells in the maritime sector alongside the emerging technology options. Below is a summary of key chapters from the report.

 

 

The report benchmarks different fuel cell technologies for the marine environment. The two main options are proton exchange membrane FC (PEMFC) and solid-oxide FC (SOFC). Neither solution is perfect. PEMFC are commercially available today, with huge projects up to 3.2MW being landed and a large pipeline of orders underway. This is being driven by the potential for zero emissions and the huge amounts of funding being made available for the development of a 'hydrogen economy'.

 

However, PEMFC use expensive materials such as platinum, and hydrogen is difficult to transport and store. As a liquid, the chart shows how hydrogen requires much more space than alternative fuels whilst also requiring a storage temperature of minus 253C. This makes it difficult for PEMFC, which can only be powered by high-purity hydrogen, to fully decarbonize the marine sector. Nonetheless, IDTechEx expects applications to grow rapidly in inland or coastal sectors where there will be more frequent refueling opportunities.

 

Ammonia-powered SOFCs have the most potential to create zero-emission long range vessels. SOFC are fuel-flexible, allowing for use of ammonia, hydrogen, LNG, LPG, methanol, ethanol and more. They also use relatively low cost and abundant materials, creating potential for greater cost reduction than PEMFC at high volumes. Moreover, SOFC can achieve the highest efficiencies of >80% when recycling heat, due to their high temperature operation of 800C. This results in less ammonia or hydrogen consumption per mile compared to an ammonia combustion engine or PEMFC, respectively.

 

Long start-up times and poor dynamic response are often cited as SOFC drawbacks, but this is manageable if paired with a battery system and a use-case of long voyages out at sea. The main disadvantage is simply that SOFC technology and the green ammonia as fuel is not readily available - few FC suppliers exist, creating a bottleneck and driving costs, and demonstrator projects for green ammonia are in their infancy. The 2MW SOFC system being delivered to the Viking Energy in 2023 will make it the first ammonia SOFC vessel in the world and it will run on green ammonia from Yara.

 

 

 

 

The report reveals supply chain information, providing market shares of maritime fuel cell suppliers (by kW installation base), project lists and regional installation market shares. The report also shares primary interviews with the top five fuel cell suppliers. No company started out supplying fuel cells to the marine sector, coming from stationary power markets, the automotive sector or even the maritime battery industry. Yet, all have begun to diversify into marine as opportunities have been created by upcoming emissions regulation and funding. Recent fuel cell systems released in the last year have improved power densities and removed the need for an open deck installation, innovations which IDTechEx expects to become key market drivers in the following years.

 

 

The report details policy drivers for marine fuel cell technologies. Policy focus is shifting from localized emissions to greenhouse gases with new technical and operational ship requirements coming in from 2023. Upcoming IMO policy includes an 'Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI)' and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII). EEXI ensures a ship is taking technical steps, in terms of how it is equipped and retrofitted, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. CII is a measure of the carbon emissions per amount of cargo carried per mile and targets reducing emissions operationally. The measures are expected to become mandatory from 2023 with the first ship ratings given in 2024. It will be difficult to meet new regulations without fundamental technical and operational changes, creating a strong driver for fuel cell solutions.

 

 

Incumbent fossil fuels such as marine gasoil and heavy fuel oil currently have a worldwide, efficient, and flexible bunkering network. This is the challenge for the adoption of new green fuels which will mostly require new bunkering infrastructure. For ammonia and hydrogen there are either no or very limited bunkering hubs today, driving high distribution costs and weak supply security. Developing new standards to aid development of technical solutions, scalability and operating procedures is one of the key challenges.

 

Compared to hydrogen, ammonia has a head start. Ammonia is much easier to store and transport than liquid hydrogen, and liquid (fossil) ammonia is already transported in large volumes by sea at minus 33C (for use in the agriculture and mining industries). The report shows that while some bunker infrastructure facilities are currently in operation for ammonia, none yet exist for hydrogen.

 

 

IDTechEx forecasts maritime fuel cell installations onboard vessels in rated capacity ('watts') and market size (US$) through to 2033. The report takes a bottom-up approach, analysing the current deliveries, pipeline and production capacity of maritime fuel cell suppliers. Primary research was gathered by interviewing and attending in-person presentations from suppliers. IDTechEx used this information to curate a list of over 30 completed, current and future fuel cell vessel projects from over 12 marine fuel cell suppliers. Up to 2024, the forecast reflects projects which have been announced and have a high degree of completion certainty.

 

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